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U.S. investments in Hong Kong should primarily be in the service and finance industries, which would have many benefits for Hong Kong companies and citizens. This is a sector with significant potential to boost Hong Kongs economic development, but there are risks given the restructure of the U.S. economy. Funds could be used to create new start-up companies, train a new generation of Hong Kong graduates, invest in technological innovation, support social safety nets, or create useful spin-offs or partnerships.

While China has substantial demand for foreign goods, with some indication of supply chain resilience, Hong Kongs retail sector is more fragile. The absence of significant non-Chinese suppliers could pose challenges for some product categories, like watches, and for certain supplies, such as earrings and cosmetics. China is an important market for Hong Kongs luxury brands, which could be disrupted as a result of escalations between Hong Kongs and Beijing governments.

China has made substantial strides in promoting imports and exports, but there are barriers to its further progress on these fronts. Significant trade disputes currently exist with Australia and the United States, both of which have various trade-related bilateral investment agreements with Hong Kong. In both cases, these disputes have the potential to present substantial challenges for Hong Kongs private sector. However, the G20 should leverage these disputes to encourage China to raise public expectation of the direction of its trade policy. Australia and the United States should also be ready to step up support for Hong Kong in the bilateral investment framework. The Brexit process, particularly Article 50, is likely to complicate the future of Hong Kongs trade agreements with both the UK and the EU, and may present opportunities for the U.S. administration to constructively engage with Hong Kongs companies when negotiating the terms of access to the British market.

The U.S. has become reliant on China for trade volumes. Even if these volumes were to fall, Hong Kong could well retain its status as an important goods trade hub. Hong Kongs steel, chemicals, iron ore, and other manufacturing processes are relatively energy efficient and able to use many natural resources, and as the Chinese economy slows, Hong Kong can raise its level of competitiveness. Moreover, Hong Kong manufacturers can easily outsource production, with many excellent supply chains and good logistic infrastructure, to South Korea and Taiwan. The Hong Kong Dollar is also relatively stable compared with the strong Dollar. A free-trade agreement with China would require few changes to Hong Kongs regulatory framework, given the similar treatment of imports and exports, the high level of regulatory alignment between Hong Kong and China, and the nature of the Hong Kong Dollar. Both sides need to downplay this aspect of the Taiwan Strait crisis and speak in terms of the need for confidence-building measures to resolve the mutual concerns. [90] The best approach is to work within the existing legal framework rather than hoping for a revival of the Taiwan Relations Act. In particular, both sides should seek to avoid any crisis contingency planning that might give the US military a strategic leg up. In the longer run, Beijing needs to accept and reward American companies for abiding by US law and following US rules wherever they are located. This is just common sense but, unfortunately, not something American companies expect or demand. In fact, a survey of more than 200 American companies found most companies are unsatisfied with the way China enforces its laws and regulations, and worried about what might happen if it tries to retaliate against American businesses it views as violating its laws. [91] 5ec8ef588b

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